Presidential Election Observatory, Week 4 (Part 1): 12-18 October

Ranking of Politicians by Influence on Social Media

The Impact Score ranks politicians based on how popular their own official social posts are, and how widely posts from other accounts that mention them by name travel. The score does not measure how much support a politician enjoys on social media, only how present they are in the online conversation. News and posts that cast a politician in a negative light can push their score up if they gain wide reach.

Comparing the two weeks (5-11 October and 12-18 October) shows a visible drop in overall Impact Scores for the main presidential tickets, while other candidates either changed less (Radostin Vasilev, Nikolay Nenchev) or gained influence (Ivelin Mihaylov). The overall fall for the main tickets may point to waning political and public interest in the leading topics, which carried over from the previous period: national and regional security in light of the new attacks on ships in the Black Sea (13 October), and new developments in the pardon of Ognyan Atanasov (12-14 October).

Sitting Bulgarian President Iliana Yotova again holds first place, although her score falls from 9,196 to 6,846 (25.6%). Her influence stems from news and discussion around the call for an extraordinary parliamentary sitting on the pardon of the "Petrich Escobar", the controversy over her campaign pledge not to send Bulgarian soldiers to Ukraine, the protests against Radev and Yotova, and posts about her campaign tour of the country. Her influence lifts the visibility of the Yotova-Valchev ticket, which keeps its lead over its rivals.

Pro-European presidential candidate Andrey Gurov keeps second place in the ranking, despite a drop from 2,440 to 1,732 (29%). This is driven by his statements on measures to secure the country after the drone attacks and on the rising cost of living. His running mate Georgi Kandev records the steepest fall among the main figures compared with the previous period (79.6%), from 1,018 to 208, placing him second to last this week. The news contributing to his influence includes discussion of the debate between him and Valchev on Bulgarian National Television (BNT) that never took place.

The Vazrazhdane ticket also loses influence this week compared with the previous one. The drop is sharper for Kostadin Kostadinov, from 764 to 363 (52.5%), than for Petar Volgin, from 324 to 300 (7.4%). Their current scores are driven by Kostadinov's statements on the drone attacks and on migrants, and by news of his meetings with party supporters on his campaign tour.

Over the past week, Ivelin Mihaylov records a significant jump and strengthens his presence in the online conversation. While he was eighth in the 5-11 October ranking with 409 points, his score nearly doubles the following week to 792 points, lifting him to third place. This marked rise is due to his many media appearances, his own posts on the Facebook pages of Velichie and of Mihaylov himself, and news of developments in the case against his wife, Vasya Mihaylova, for tax and social security evasion.

Nikolay Nenchev records the second steepest fall for the period, from 358 to 79, or 77.9%. His place in the weekly ranking comes from his comments on the new drone attacks and Bulgaria's security. Tenth place goes to controversial presidential candidate Ventsislav Angelov, nicknamed "Chicagoto", who used obscene language and hate speech during an appearance on BNT, after which the presenters ended the interview.

Some of the observations and patterns described above are also visible when tracking the daily Impact Score of the main candidates and their running mates over the past week. The pattern repeats itself: the period opens with a jump, after which the lines trend downwards. This may reflect stronger media and online interest at the start of the week, which fades as the week goes on.

The values and trajectory of Iliana Yotova, seen as the frontrunner, again differ clearly from those of the other candidates. In the new period her daily values again peak at the start of the week (13 October), followed by a decline that is more gradual than in the 5-11 October period. The peak coincides with news of the new attacks on ships in the Black Sea, the lack of a quorum for the extraordinary sitting on the pardon of Ognyan Atanasov, and the debate about two versions of Iliana Yotova's interview for BNT, which prompted a fact-check by journalist Teodora Stanimirova of the fact-checking platform Factcheck.bg.

Andrey Gurov's line is stable, again with a smaller drop towards the end of the week. His peak on 14 October is driven by his comments on the government's lack of measures against the rising cost of living. The line of his running mate Georgi Kandev is low, close to those of the Vazrazhdane ticket, Kostadinov-Volgin.

Kostadinov-Volgin likewise show no marked peaks or deviations. Kostadinov's higher values come from his statements on arms exports to Ukraine, and from a piece by the outlet Blitz in which the Vazrazhdane leader claims that his two opponents, Yotova and Gurov, had been in contact with the US Ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, who resigned on 13 October following allegations of inappropriate conduct.

Most Controversial Posts

Our ranking of the most controversial posts shows which social media posts (Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and others) combine a negative tone and messaging with high impact and heavy sharing (measured at 12:00 on the Monday after the analysed week). The most controversial post for each day between 12 and 18 October:

Most Controversial Posts Between 12-18 October

Over the past week there is no marked change in the two leading controversial topics: sitting President Iliana Yotova's contested pardon of drug trafficker Ognyan Stefanov (2 posts), and the new attacks in the Black Sea in the context of Bulgaria's stance on the war in Ukraine (4 posts). There is also overlap among some of the most active authors on these topics: We Continue the Change and its leader Assen Vassilev, and Vazrazhdane leader and presidential candidate Kostadin Kostadinov. Some of the posts again show presidential candidates and public figures using current events around Black Sea and regional security for campaigning.

On 12 October, the We Continue the Change Facebook page published a post about the extraordinary sitting scheduled for 13 October 2026 on sitting head of state Iliana Yotova's pardon of the "Petrich Escobar". The subsequent news of the sitting's failure and the blocking of the proposed legal changes, under which pardon decisions would be published in the State Gazette (14 October), also entered the weekly ranking.

Two posts by journalist Martin Karbovski on 14 October criticise PP-DB in the context of the election and their stance on the war in Ukraine. The first post (64.9) reshares a post from the personal page of Delyan Dobrev, a Vazrazhdane sympathiser. Dobrev claims that, despite the lack of evidence about the Black Sea attacks, the Gurov-Kandev ticket would expel the Russian ambassador, through which Bulgaria "would itself mark itself as a state hostile to Russia", and calls the attacks a "Ukrainian provocation". The other post (64.3) is taken from the personal page of Zdravko Vasilev, winner of the first season of the reality show Big Brother. Vasilev attacks PP-DB, claiming that their election victory would lead to military mobilisation. In earlier posts he called on the country to maintain "active neutrality" and criticised the towing of the damaged ship "Chelsea-3".

A day earlier (13 October), Kostadin Kostadinov commented on the new attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea in the context of the presidential race. In his words, Yotova and Gurov "categorically support EU policy, as well as the sanctions", while the Vazrazhdane leader presents himself as a "different choice", opposed to the sanctions and to arms exports to Ukraine. At the end of his statement he calls on his supporters to back him in the coming election.

On 14-15 October, Iliana Yotova was criticised by representatives of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria for her statement in Burgas (14 October), in which she positioned herself as the candidate who would not allow Bulgarian soldiers to be sent to the front in Ukraine. We Continue the Change leader Assen Vassilev (14 October) and Democratic Bulgaria MP Anna Bodakova (15 October) recalled the declaration adopted by the 51st National Assembly on 21 February 2025 on the non-participation of Bulgarian armed forces in military action on the territory of Ukraine. Both clarify whose powers this decision falls under and accuse Yotova of spreading lies. Bodakova also points out that the declaration was backed by the then PP-DB coalition, which reflects the two parties' position on the issue.

The last two highest-impact posts come from the Facebook page of the outlet Svobodna Tochka. On Saturday (17 October) the focus is on the proposal by Iliana Yotova's running mate, Kiril Valchev, to adopt a Bulgarian Language Act covering signage in Bulgarian and Bulgarian typefaces. The outlet recalls Yotova's statement that she would "protect the Cyrillic alphabet" without specifying the source of the threat to it. Similar statements by the sitting president were made on 8 and 13 September, the latter during a television appearance in which she raised the subject of opponents of Cyrillic and their alleged claim that "Cyrillic distances us from the civilised world". An analysis by journalist Vasil Hadzhiyski of Factcheck.bg found no such public statement by Bulgarian politicians in the country's recent history.

The sitting president is also the target of criticism in the week's last post. It includes an excerpt from journalist Katerina Vasileva's interview with political scientist Assoc. Prof. Milen Lyubenov. They discuss Yotova's statement positioning herself as "Bulgaria's president of peace" and her proposal that the country launch a "coalition of peace". The guest calls the label misleading, given that Bulgaria has no direct role in the war in Ukraine, and stresses that the aggressor state must itself be willing to end its military action.

Cognitive Vectors in the Candidates' Websites

Andy Stoycheff, NTCenter

This commentary is part of a broader analysis of the content on the websites of the five candidate tickets. Two elements of it are selected here: how likely the texts are to trigger anxiety or another strong emotion in the reader, and how far the same texts offer a way to manage it. The analysis does not read readers' minds - it examines the texts themselves and looks for words, topics and techniques that our research model (Cognitive Pathways Model, 2025) associates with particular emotional reactions and a behavioural profile. In other words, it shows the potential a text carries, not what actually happens in the head of everyone who reads it.

The amygdala is a brain structure that judges, within fractions of a second, whether something is dangerous, important or exciting - long before conscious thought has considered it. When it is triggered, the body switches into a state of readiness and behaviour is steered by the specific emotion: fear leads to caution or withdrawal, outrage to action, disgust to distancing, and pride or hope to closeness and engagement. This in itself is neither good nor bad; what matters is what follows. If the text also offers a way to manage the anxiety - a reassuring tone, a concrete plan or an invitation for readers to check the facts themselves - their ability to reason soberly stays intact. If no such way is offered, it may weaken. The link between emotion and behaviour is a hypothesis of the model, not a result measured on real readers.

Amygdala - a small brain structure that makes a rapid assessment of significance and danger before conscious thought; it is triggered both by threat (fear, anger, disgust) and by strongly positive significance (pride, hope).

Sudden urgency (SAM) - a momentary sense of "now", "immediately", as if the danger were imminent.

Prolonged, vague threat (HPA) - a sense that "something is wrong", with no clear end or way of resolving it.

Hindered verification - techniques that make independent checking less likely: false dilemmas, slogans, claims made with full certainty and no evidence.

In the texts analysed, the amygdala is most likely triggered in between 38% and 67% of each campaign's documents - the question is not whether it happens, but how often. The highest share is for Mihaylov/Mateeva (67%, from a sample of only 6 documents), closely followed by Gurov/Kandev and Hristanov/Cherkezova (45% each). Even the lowest result - Yotova/Valchev at 38% - covers more than a third of the texts. The direction of this reaction, however, differs considerably: for Yotova/Valchev, and to a lesser extent Kostadinov/Volgin, the positive side prevails - pride or hope; for Gurov/Kandev, Hristanov/Cherkezova and Mihaylov/Mateeva the negative side dominates - fear, anger or disgust, with the gap sharpest for the last two. Sadness or compassion remains weakly represented everywhere (0-15%). The table also includes other signals that are triggered less often and more unevenly across the campaigns: a sense of sudden urgency remains rare almost everywhere (0-18%, highest for Gurov/Kandev), a sense of prolonged, vague threat is more widespread (9-33%), and techniques that hinder independent checking vary the most of all - from 12% to 50%.

The ways in which the texts offer to manage anxiety differ far more than the triggering itself. An invitation for readers to check the facts themselves - through cited sources, caveats or a comparison of viewpoints - ranges from just 12% of documents for Kostadinov/Volgin to 69% for Hristanov/Cherkezova. Offering a concrete plan shows a similar spread - from 12% to 50%. Conversely, techniques that make checking less likely - false dilemmas, slogans, claims made with full certainty and no evidence - are most frequent for Kostadinov/Volgin and Mihaylov/Mateeva (35% and 50%). Direct reassurance - soft, safety-signalling cues in the text - is most widespread for Yotova/Valchev, where it appears in 51% of documents.

Reassuring tone - soft, safety-signalling cues in the text that directly reduce the sense of anxiety.

Concrete plan - the threat is followed by a concrete action, a party responsible for resolving it, or a clear mechanism that makes it manageable; if there is no threat in the text, this indicator is 0.

Invitation to verify - the text invites readers to check for themselves: it cites sources, adds caveats, explains "how" and "why", and compares options.

Each of the five tickets shows a characteristic combination of techniques for triggering and soothing anxiety:

Yotova / Valchev. "Regulation with an edge". Here reassurance appears more often than the triggering of anxiety itself - the only campaign in the analysis with this ratio. The texts reassure in 51% of cases, the highest share among the five campaigns. The tone is markedly positive: 75% carry pride or hope, against only 34% fear, anger or disgust. Concrete plans (25%) and invitations to verify independently (13%) remain rare - the reassurance here comes from tone rather than from a proposed solution. The sense of prolonged, vague threat is also the lowest in the analysis (9%).

Gurov / Kandev. "Anxiety, urgency and a plan". This campaign produces the most palpable sense of sudden urgency in the whole analysis - 18% of texts. The sense of prolonged, vague threat is also high - 22%. But the anxiety here is almost always accompanied by a response: 39% of texts offer a concrete plan, and 51% invite readers to check the facts themselves. The tone is split almost evenly, with a slight lean towards the negative (47% against 41%).

Kostadinov / Volgin. "Activation without a counterweight". The share of techniques that make independent checking less likely is the highest among the campaigns with a large corpus - 35% of texts. Against them stand the lowest shares of concrete plans and invitations to verify in the whole corpus - only 12% each. The share of texts that both trigger anxiety and limit its checking reaches 33% - the highest among campaigns with more than 40 documents.

Hristanov / Cherkezova. "Verification instead of reassurance". The only campaign with more than 40 documents in which the negative tone (55%) clearly outweighs the positive (29%). At the same time, it has the strongest invitation to verify independently - 69% of texts - and concrete plans appear in 50% of cases. Direct reassurance is almost absent (2%), as are texts with anxiety and no proposed solution (2%).

Mihaylov / Mateeva. "A loud burst from the smallest sample". The sample here is small - only 6 documents from the campaign layer - so the values suggest a trend rather than prove it. The amygdala is triggered in 67% of texts, the highest share in the analysis, and texts that both trigger and offer a solution are exactly half. The negative tone is present in 67%; sudden urgency and sadness/compassion do not appear in a single document. The sense of prolonged, vague threat (33%) and techniques that hinder checking (50%), however, are the highest in the whole analysis.

Sample and sources. The corpus covers texts from the websites of the five candidate tickets between 01.09 and 16.10.2026, a total of 200 documents and 70,581 words: iotovavalchev.bg (Yotova/Valchev, 53 documents, 22,374 words, 08.09-16.10), gurovkandev.bg (Gurov/Kandev, 52 documents, 17,425 words, 01.09-15.10), vazrazhdane.bg (Kostadinov/Volgin, 48 documents, 15,590 words, 21.09-16.10), prezidentnanaroda.bg (Hristanov/Cherkezova, 41 documents, 10,776 words, 02.09-20.09 - all the text predates the start of the campaign; after 25.09 the campaign published only video) and velichie.bg (Mihaylov/Mateeva, 6 documents from the campaign layer, 4,416 words, 30.09-~08.10).