Presidential Election Observatory, Week 6 (Part 1): 26 October-1 November

Ranking of Politicians by Influence on Social Media

The Impact Score ranks politicians by how popular posts from their official profiles are on social media, together with posts from other profiles that mention them by name. The score does not measure how much support a politician enjoys on social media, only how present they are in the online conversation. News and posts that show a politician in a negative light can raise their score if they gain wide traction.

In the runoff week of the presidential election, Iliana Yotova kept her dominant influence with a 265% rise, and her opponent Andrey Gurov recorded the most dramatic jump (713%). Every candidate reached their best values of the entire campaign.

Influence grew for all four members of the two tickets, with Yotova posting the lowest percentage rise. Her results were driven by news around the long-awaited debate with her opponent Andrey Gurov, her interview with Martin Karbovski and Yavor Dachkov, opposition criticism over the pardons and her stance on the country's geopolitical orientation, news of opinion polls and the election-day results.

Andrey Gurov's growing influence came from posts about the presidential debate, statements by political and public figures declaring their support for him in the runoff or refusing it, data from polling agencies, and comments on the election-day results.

The vice-presidential candidates also posted their best results of the campaign, with rises of 346% for Georgi Kandev and 275% for Kiril Valchev. Kandev's results were driven by posts about the attempt to mobilise votes for the Gurov-Kandev ticket, criticism from opponents, the exit polls of 1 November and Kandev's first comments on the results.

For Kiril Valchev, the posts behind his results include his statements in support of Yotova and against his opponent Georgi Kandev, calls to vote, and updates on the vote count on election day.

Compared with the week of the first round, the candidates' highest values in the runoff week came on election day itself (1 November). Secondary peaks appear on the first day of the week (26 October), and the pattern from the previous week repeats: a sharp drop as the day of reflection arrives.

What stands out is how the gap between the winner of the presidential race and her rival melted away, with their lines following very similar paths. The values of the vice-presidential candidates also level out.

Iliana Yotova's first major peak (26 October) followed round-ups of the first-round results and the controversy over Prime Minister Rumen Radev's decision to use the Council of Ministers' channels to campaign for Yotova in the runoff, which led Andrey Gurov's Initiative Committee to refer the matter to the Central Election Commission (CEC). On 29-30 October, her results were driven mainly by posts about the pre-election debate and her interview with Karbovski and Dachkov, and the rise on 1 November came from wide coverage of election day and Yotova's victory.

As expected, Andrey Gurov's peaks coincide with Yotova's. His values on 26 October came from posts analysing the first-round results, comments from supporters and opponents, and the complaint filed with the CEC over the misuse of the Council of Ministers' communication channels for campaigning. On 28 October, several outlets claimed that compromising material was being prepared against Gurov, and Petar Vitanov, leader of the Progressive Bulgaria parliamentary group, claimed that the candidate had met DPS leader Delyan Peevski to seek support for the runoff. His values on 29-30 October were driven by the pre-election debate and news that former Prime Minister and GERB leader Boyko Borissov had declared his support for Gurov.

Georgi Kandev's peaks largely match those above, since he is most often mentioned alongside Gurov. On 27 October, news broke that Kandev was ready for a vice-presidential debate with Kiril Valchev, on condition that Valchev first answered several of his questions. The video statement drew comments and criticism across the information space.

Kiril Valchev's line is the most stable. Valchev is also mentioned most often alongside Yotova, including in a post of her own in which she confirms that the two of them call for “peace through negotiations” in Ukraine. As users commented on Kandev's conditions for joining a vice-presidential debate, Valchev accused Kandev of lacking ideas and competence for the vice-presidential post.

Iliana Yotova's average daily Impact Score rose nearly threefold in the runoff week compared with the period up to the first round. Her opponent Andrey Gurov saw an almost sixfold jump in his average daily values.

Comparing the two periods shows a clear pattern: the daily Impact Score peaks early to mid-week, then falls as the weekend and the days of reflection approach.

Iliana Yotova kept strong influence for almost the entire campaign, marked by many distinct peaks and drops. Her most visible peaks before the first round came from crises seen as a litmus test for a future Yotova presidency: 6 October (the first drone attacks in the Black Sea), 13 October (new attacks on ships, and the lack of a quorum for the parliamentary sitting on the pardoned drug trafficker Ognyan Atanasov) and 23 October (calls for the head of the NSO to resign after the incident involving Sonya Koltuklieva).

Andrey Gurov's values are lower but steadier, and the same pattern holds. In some cases, his sharper peaks were triggered by the same events behind Yotova's. In others, they came mainly from news not driven by Gurov's own actions, such as opinion polls. These peaks fall on 26 September, when the Gurov-Kandev ticket launched its presidential campaign, 5-6 October (voter sentiment data and the Black Sea attacks) and 23 October (criticism of Radev over his reproaches to Bulgarian MEPs).

Most Controversial Posts of the Week

Our ranking of the most controversial posts shows which social media posts (Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and others) combine a negative tone and messaging with high impact and heavy sharing (measured at 12:00 on the Monday after the analysed week). The most controversial posts for each day of the week 26 October-1 November are:

Most Controversial Posts Between 26 October-1 November

In the runoff week, the most controversial posts reflect the main lines of attack between supporters and opponents of the two leading presidential contenders, Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gurov. The country's geopolitical divide stays in the foreground against the backdrop of continuing attacks in the Black Sea, and domestic politics comes up mostly through inflation and the pardons.

Yotova is the subject of comment or criticism in four of the posts, over her position on the war in Ukraine and her political vision for Bulgaria's security, and over the investigation into the drug traffickers she pardoned. Gurov's words and actions are in focus in three, mostly linked to the 10-year security agreement with Ukraine he signed during the caretaker cabinet he led. Two of the most active authors of the whole campaign, Vazrazhdane leader and the party's presidential candidate Kostadin Kostadinov (1) and the We Continue the Change (PP) page (2), make the list again, and the Yes, Bulgaria page (1) appears for the second time. The presence of Prime Minister Rumen Radev (2) stands out: his post of 26 October tops the ranking (85.9).

The first two posts in the ranking address the coming runoff and support for the two candidates. In his post of 26 October, the day after the first round, Radev congratulates Iliana Yotova on her first-round win and calls the opposition “sglobkadzhii”, a jibe at the “sglobka” (literally “the assembly”), a label for cross-party governing arrangements of recent years. The agreement Andrey Gurov signed with Ukraine is likened to an act that could drag the country into war, and his election to a step that could derail judicial reform. The former president calls for higher turnout in the second round and frames the choice between Yotova and Gurov as one “between peace and war, between democracy and the corrupt model of the sglobka, between calm truth and the hysteria of the trolls”. In the most controversial post of the runoff week, electing Yotova is presented as the final step needed to break with the sglobka model for good. Criticism of Andrey Gurov also features in the Novini.bg post, which quotes the eliminated Vazrazhdane presidential candidate on the runoff. Kostadinov says that party supporters have stated they will not back Gurov's candidacy.

In an address to Prime Minister Rumen Radev (28 October), We Continue the Change (PP) leader Assen Vassilev criticises Iliana Yotova's campaign rhetoric about sending Bulgarian soldiers to the front in Ukraine. Vassilev recalls that a declaration against Bulgarian armed forces taking part in military action on Ukrainian territory was tabled and adopted in 2025, and argues that only Progressive Bulgaria has the power to change this policy course. The same document comes up in a post with highlights from the former finance minister's appearance on Tsvetanka Rizova's show Lice v Lice (Face to Face) on 29 October, which focused on the draft 2027 budget. One of Vassilev's arguments is that the narrative about sending Bulgarian troops to the front is being used to divert public attention from upcoming changes in the 2027 budget, which include tax rises and ineffective management of inflation.

On 30 October, the day after the long-awaited debate between Yotova and Gurov, the Yes, Bulgaria page published a statement by MP Nadezhda Yordanova, in which the former justice minister sets out the facts of the Ognyan Atanasov pardon case and the responsibility of those involved. Yordanova stresses that the pardon proposal did not come through the medical commission, but from the Pardons Commission appointed by decree of then-President Rumen Radev. The Yes, Bulgaria MP accuses Iliana Yotova of trying to shift responsibility for the assessment and the signature that led to Atanasov's release. In Yordanova's account, this took place under the Galab Donev cabinet, when Krum Zarkov was justice minister and the caretaker deputy justice minister was Maria Pavlova, described as close to Radev and Yotova. Yordanova confirms her own role in replacing two of the medical commission's seven members, but says this happened earlier, during her own term as justice minister.

On the day of reflection (31 October), the Facebook page of former Velichie MP Nikolay Markov published a post criticising Yotova and Radev for using the theme of dragging the country into military action on foreign soil for campaign purposes, and accusing them of exploiting Bulgarian voters' emotions. The same day, the Novini.cc page, which describes itself as “a media outlet covering news from around the world and the first media outlet supporting the arts in Bulgaria”, republished a statement by former MEP Antonia Parvanova. In it, she speaks of a “radical mobilisation for Gurov of a geostrategic nature” and of an international campaign expert in Sofia whose aim is to help him win the election. The post was shared 370 times in groups that support Prime Minister Rumen Radev and Iliana Yotova. The same narrative appears in an original post in the Brics.bg group, where it gained 1,100 shares. Some of the groups and pages spreading it support Rumen Radev and oppose sending Bulgarian units to Ukraine, and they include a military-patriotic organisation.

Rumen Radev also authored the last post in the ranking, in which the Prime Minister urges people to go out and vote “despite the extremely disgraceful, muddy kompromat campaign”. Radev calls on people to vote in the next (local) elections too, and for less tolerance towards “politicians, websites and parties that constantly spew kompromat”. He ends by raising Budget 2027, which, in his words, will be tabled in the coming days and “makes enormous efforts to save public finances after the devastation caused by Assen Vassilev”.